Is it Enough to fend off EA Hostility?
Seeming very certain in their assumption, a recent Variety article predicts that, once Grand Theft Auto IV is released worldwide later in the month, the game will rake in $400 million for Rockstar and Take-Two Interactive.
If the number holds, the launch would be a blockbuster beyond the caliber of major motion picture releases and beyond anything the gaming industry has ever seen.
Citing “several industry analysts,” Variety believes GTAIV has the potential to even eclipse current media top dog Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (the movie…not the game franchise). That made $404 million in its first week of release.
In the gaming world, the current top dog is Halo 3. The Bungie/Microsoft classic sold $300 million in its first week.
If the numbers hold, it couldn’t come at a better time for Take-Two Interactive. They are fending off a potential hostile takeover by Electronic Arts and if they rake in these figures, it could be enough to justify EA backing off. On that, the article notes:
Executive chairman Strauss Zelnick and CEO Ben Feder are sure to be touting early sales momentum for “GTA IV” at the company’s annual meeting Thursday, which is, not coincidentally, a day before EA’s tender offer to shareholders expires.
Take-Two management needs “Grand Theft Auto IV” to have a huge opening to keep up, if not bump, their company’s stock price and justify their advice that shareholders reject the EA proposal. Some analysts have urged them to accept it, as EA is offering a 64% premium over the publisher’s previous share price.
Boffo sales for “GTA IV” are widely expected and already priced into Take-Two stock.
We are less than two weeks to see if Variety’s prediction is correct. The only problem for Take-Two is that their shareholder meeting is this coming Thursday. Something major can still happen there, up to and including an EA buyout approval, which could have serious ramifications as to whether the game even gets out in April. We plan to blog the conference stream live, as it happens, here at TSSZ.
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