VGChartz Estimates May Have Been Kind
It may be time to ring the alarm bells. On the heels of news from Nintendo today that Wii U sales for 2013 will be far under the company’s expectations, there are now some indications via the official NPD sales charts released late yesterday that a Nintendo exclusive, Sonic Lost World, may also be well below guidance we’ve seen to date in the United States.
Posts on the NeoGAF thread for December and overall 2013 NPD sales from alleged individuals with access to the data indicate that Lost World may have some approximately 82,000 copies on Wii U in the US, and approximately 97,000 copies on the 3DS. That would be fine if that data represented just December. It apparently does not; we have learned those numbers represent the cumulative total of sales in all of 2013, going back to the launch in late October. These approximations are official, and if they are accurate, we have to go back to Sonic and the Black Knight on the original Wii to find a game that sold as poorly out of the gates.
What’s more, these numbers also mean the unofficial data shown from VGChartz.com was a significant overestimate. The website’s data for the US indicates a bit over 230,000 copies of Lost World sold across Wii U and 3DS in 2013. The official NPD data means the truth may be some 22 percent lower than the estimate.
One thing to keep in mind is that NPD only counts boxed purchases, not digital. So digital purchases may nudge up the numbers a bit, but only Nintendo and Sega know for sure. Sega Sammy should release an official count of Lost World shipped copies worldwide in their next earnings report early in February. We will bring you that figure once it’s available.